Monday, December 8, 2025

JOM Forecast 2026: Ongoing Economic Uncertainty Slows German Advertising Market as Digital Platforms and U.S. Tech Giants Drive Structural Change

According to the JOM Group, the German advertising market is expected to stagnate again in 2026 with virtually no growth. Persistent economic uncertainties are prompting companies to take a cautious approach to budget allocation. JOM’s current annual market outlook anticipates a slight decline for 2025, with no meaningful recovery forecast for the coming year. Investment willingness has weakened significantly, driven by factors such as geopolitical developments, challenges in the automotive sector, and ongoing discussions around trade and customs policies – issues that increasingly influence corporate decision-making.

Companies remain hesitant, with limited optimism for a swift economic rebound or a substantial rise in private consumption. If the anticipated recovery materializes, the advertising market could post a marginal increase of around 0.5 percent in 2026, surpassing a total volume of 28 billion euros.

Continued Structural Transformation

The ongoing structural shift toward digital media will intensify further. A key driver is the accelerated migration of budgets from linear TV to digital video platforms. Services such as YouTube, Amazon, Netflix, and streaming libraries like RTL+ or Joyn have become core components of big-screen entertainment, capturing a growing share of advertising spending.

Out-of-home and retail media are also gaining traction. Despite feeling the effects of a cooling advertising climate in the second half of 2025, both segments are expected to close the year with strong gains and continue their upward trajectory in 2026.

Dominance of U.S. Platforms

More than half of Germany’s advertising investments now flow into ecosystems operated by Google, Amazon, and Meta. When additional platforms such as TikTok are included, this share increases even further. In parallel, influencer marketing is expanding rapidly. According to JOM estimates, influencer campaigns combined with social-media-content investments may account for between five and ten percent of the total advertising market.

Effectiveness Proof as a Growth Lever

Volker Neumann, Managing Director of the JOM Group, underscores the importance of measurable outcomes: “In times of uncertainty, investments become harder to justify. To stimulate advertising activity, we need to provide reliable proof of impact – or better yet, predictive models that forecast expected effects on key metrics.” According to Neumann, this will be one of the central challenges agencies must address in the coming year.